BACKGROUND NOTE: Thanks to
Bert Hirschorn for this very important find which he aptly called the
"daddy of teen-age targeting market analysis." This document was a MN
trial exhibit. It is a report by a
PM analyst who was alarmed at decrease in teen smoking (pre-age18).
This is a "must-read," a document tobacco control advocates should all keep
close at hand when advocating for youth access measures.
Quotes from a memo introducing this document:
For over fifteen years certain demographic trends have been moving in
directions favorable to industry growth. No, one by one, these powerful
social and demographic factors are turning against us, and by 1985 all
will be operating against us.
The trends are:
1. After increasing for over a decade, the prevalence of teenage
smoking is now declining sharply.
2. After increasing for over a decade, the average daily consumption of
teenage smokers is declining.
3. After increasing 38 percent from 1967 to 1976, the absolute number
of 15-19 year olds will decline 19 percent during the 1980's, with the
period of sharpest decline beginning in 1981.
Quotes from the body of the document:
Between 1975 and 1979 the proportion of teenagers who say they
"definitely will not" be smoking five years nhence has increased
dramatically. The major reasons for the decline are the perceived
health hazards of smoking and peer pressure not to smoke.
Because of our high share of the market among the youngest smokers,
Philip Morris will suffer more than the other companies from the decline
in the number of teenage smokers.
Anne Landman
American Lung Association of Colorado, West Region Office
Grand Junction
Type of Document: Philip Morris Research Center Special Report
Title: "Young Smokers: Prevalence, Trends, Implications and Related
Demographic Trends
Author: Myron E. Johnson
Date: March 31, 1981
Site: Philip Morris Dcoument Site (http://www.pmdocs.com)
URL: http://www.pmdocs.com/getallimg.asp?DOCID=1000390803/0855 (give it
a few minutes to load)
